New Jersey 2025 Governor’s Race: Sherrill Leads Ciattarelli By 10

Signs of New Jersey's Blue Wall Holding. The Quantus Insights survey isn’t a tremor, it’s a warning shot to Republicans in an off-year election

ANDOVER, MN, UNITED STATES, September 8, 2025 /EINPresswire.com/ -- NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL
September 5, 2025|Politics

Early Signs of New Jersey's Blue Wall Holding Firm
The Quantus Insights survey out of New Jersey isn’t a tremor, it’s a warning shot to Republicans in an off-year election, and a forecast for the 2026 midterms rolling in. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, comes out the gate with a 10-point lead over GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, 49% to 39% with leaners included and 47% to 37% with leaners undecided. For a Republican trying to win statewide in New Jersey — a state that hasn’t elected a GOP governor since Chris Christie in 2013 — that margin is no small obstacle. It’s a wall of demographics, geography, and institutional allegiance that the Republican must crack, or he loses. Period.

Democrats Begin With the Wind at Their Back
Sherrill isn’t just leading — she’s liked.
• Favorable: 52%
• Unfavorable: 30%

That’s +22 net favorability in a cynical political era. Ciattarelli trails with a still-respectable +10 (45% favorable, 35% unfavorable).
She holds women by 20 points. She wins the suburbs where elections are fought and decided in a state like New Jersey. And she leads among college-educated voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, and new voters. All the groups that built the modern Democratic coalition.

Where Ciattarelli Has a Chance:
The former assemblyman commands:
• White men: Ciattarelli +12
• White non-college: Ciattarelli +9
• Rural voters: Ciattarelli +14
• South Jersey: Slight edge, +3

But these are shrinking bases in a state trending younger, more urban, and more college-educated. Republicans win them by necessity, not strategy.
Even on his bread-and-butter issue — property taxes and cost of living, named the top concern by 60% of voters — Sherrill holds a narrow edge, 38% to 36%, on who’s trusted more, but certainly within the margin of error. Still, that should set off alarm bells.

But Here’s the Catch: The Trendline Favors the GOP
This isn’t 2018. Since 2020, New Jersey has been slowly trending right. In 2024, Donald Trump lost the state by just 6 points. That's the strongest showing in a generation for a Republican. The state gave Joe Biden a 16-point margin in 2020. That gap narrowing to 6 in 2024 signals a resilient Republican base and a vulnerability Democrats can’t ignore. But in an off-year, base energy isn’t enough. Without high GOP turnout, especially among working-class men, rural voters, and independents, that Trump coalition doesn’t deliver a win by itself.

The Mood of the Electorate:
This isn’t a revolution brewing. It’s confusion and fatigue.
• 44% say the state is on the wrong track
• 42% say it’s on the right track
• The rest? They don’t know or won’t say.
Ciattarelli needs those 44%. Every last one of them. But many are independents who aren’t yet sold on a Republican solution.

Big Picture:
This isn’t Pennsylvania. This isn’t Ohio. New Jersey is a machine state, with a hardened Democratic infrastructure.
That doesn’t mean Republicans can’t win here. But it does mean the bar is high, the runway is short, and the margin for error is zero.
For Jack Ciattarelli, the mission is clear:
• Win back white working-class voters in the suburbs.
• Cut into Sherrill’s lead with independents.
• And own the cost-of-living issue like it’s a crusade.
Because right now, he’s not just behind. He’s being outflanked on his own terrain.

Bottom Line:
Mikie Sherrill is ahead. She’s got the wind, the map, and the mood. Ciattarelli has the ground troops but he needs a surge. There’s a Trump-era GOP base in New Jersey. But it can’t win this race alone. And in an off-year election, alone is exactly where they might end up.

Jason B. Corley is a former intelligence community professional with over 15 years of experience in all-source analysis and national security. He served eight years in the U.S. military as an intelligence analyst, including deployment as a tactical intelligence operator during the Iraq War. After transitioning from government service, he moved into the private sector, leading strategic initiatives in cyber defense and information security. His work has spanned OSINT, incident response, MDR/EDR, and business development in high-risk, data-driven environments. He is the co-founder and Lead Pollster at Quantus Insights, where he specializes in election forecasting, political polling, and predictive analytics. Across every role, he brings a sharp focus on problem-solving, execution, and building systems that drive results. For official comments, appearances or data requests, please contact us.

Jason Corley
Quantus Insights
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